Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
